Name: JHONATAN TELLES RIBEIRO
Publication date: 20/02/2026
Examining board:
Name |
Role |
|---|---|
| AURELIA HERMINIA CASTIGLIONI | Presidente |
| EDNELSON MARIANO DOTA | Examinador Interno |
| JUAN ANTONIO MÓDENES CABRERIZO | Examinador Externo |
Summary: This dissertation investigates the demographic dynamics and socio-spatial formation of the
municipality of Cariacica, in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, from 1991 onwards — a year
that marks both the municipality's demographic peak within the Greater Vitória Metropolitan
Region (RMGV) and the onset of a prolonged cycle of inertial growth. Drawing on a multiscalar
and longitudinal approach that articulates municipal, intrametropolitan, and intra-urban scales,
the study examines the population, economic, and fiscal determinants that have shaped the
current socio-spatial configuration of the territory. The central problem is organized around a
twofold paradox: on one hand, the coexistence of exemplary fiscal management — attested by
an A+ rating from the National Treasury (CAPAG) — and the persistence of the lowest per
capita revenue in the RMGV; on the other, the simultaneous expansion of built-up areas and a
77.92% increase in vacant housing units between 2010 and 2022. The central hypothesis holds
that the slowdown in natural population growth is accompanied by negative migratory
selectivity, whereby the emigration of working-age individuals with higher levels of education
and income drains local human capital, thereby undermining the municipality's long-term
economic trajectory and fiscal sustainability. Methodologically, the research integrates three
complementary analytical axes: an examination of general and intra-municipal population
dynamics based on universe data and sample microdata from the Demographic Censuses of
1991, 2000, 2010, and 2022; an investigation of migratory profiles and flows using the fixeddate migration variable, covering immigrants, emigrants, and non-migrants across the
intercensal intervals 1986–1991, 1995–2000, and 2005–2010; and an analysis of economic and
fiscal dynamics, drawing on Annual Budget Laws (2001–2025), RAIS labor market data
(2022), and socioeconomic indicators from the Jones dos Santos Neves Institute (IJSN). The
results reveal asymmetric demographic aging concentrated in the historical centers of Campo
Grande and Jardim América, contrasting with rejuvenation in the peripheral expansion fringes
toward Serra and Vila Velha. The analysis of migratory selectivity identifies two distinct
outflow vectors: higher-income and better-educated residents move toward the metropolitan
core — Vitória and Vila Velha — in search of urban amenities; while low-income youth
migrate to the expansion frontiers—Viana and Serra—where access to land, self-construction,
and housing developments remains viable.. The population that remains is predominantly
characterized by involuntary immobility, anchored by homeownership and the lack of capital
for residential mobility. The study concludes that Cariacica is undergoing a phase of urban
restructuring driven by strategic state-led investments, aiming to transition from its historical
role as a dormitory city to a centrality of services and logistics. This process, however, has yet
to translate into a meaningful capacity to retain or attract qualified human capital, configuring
a window of opportunity that depends, fundamentally, on the production of urban amenities
and the diversification of the local productive base.
